把 94 项独立检验合起来算,先把打算写成「如果……就……」的人,目标达成率更高。这种写法在心理学里叫实施意图。效果大小 d = 0.65,算中到大。管用的环节有三个:开始动手、被打扰的时候顶住、从注定做不成的事上撤出来。
原始出处
Gollwitzer, P. M., & Sheeran, P. (2006). Implementation intentions and goal achievement: A meta-analysis of effects and processes. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 38, 69–119. doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2601(06)38002-1
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366–381. doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366;Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). From Nobel Prize to project management: Getting risks right. Project Management Journal, 37(3), 5–15. doi.org/10.1177/875697280603700302;Halkjelsvik, T., & Jørgensen, M. (2012). From origami to software development: A review of studies on judgment-based predictions of performance time. Psychological Bulletin, 138(2), 238–271. doi.org/10.1037/a0025996
把多项实施意图研究合起来算,事先定好的「如果……就……」,同样能帮人从注定做不成的事上撤出来。原文的说法是 disengagement from failing courses of action。省下的时间,就是你本来还会继续投进去的那些。
原始出处
Gollwitzer, P. M., & Sheeran, P. (2006). Implementation intentions and goal achievement: A meta-analysis of effects and processes. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 38, 69–119. doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2601(06)38002-1
Leach, D. J., Rogelberg, S. G., Warr, P. B., & Burnfield, J. L. (2009). Perceived meeting effectiveness: The role of design characteristics. Journal of Business and Psychology, 24(1), 65–76. doi.org/10.1007/s10869-009-9092-6;Bluedorn, A. C., Turban, D. B., & Love, M. S. (1999). The effects of stand-up and sit-down meeting formats on meeting outcomes. Journal of Applied Psychology, 84(2). doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.84.2.277
Rogelberg, S. G., Leach, D. J., Warr, P. B., & Burnfield, J. L. (2006). "Not another meeting!" Are meeting time demands related to employee well-being? Journal of Applied Psychology, 91(1). doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.91.1.83;Luong, A., & Rogelberg, S. G. (2005). Meetings and more meetings: The relationship between meeting load and the daily well-being of employees. Group Dynamics: Theory, Research, and Practice, 9(1). doi.org/10.1037/1089-2699.9.1.58
Kruger, J., & Evans, M. (2004). If you don't want to be late, enumerate: Unpacking reduces the planning fallacy. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 40(5), 586–598. doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2003.11.001;Steel, P. (2007). The nature of procrastination: A meta-analytic and theoretical review of quintessential self-regulatory failure. Psychological Bulletin, 133(1). doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.133.1.65
有外部截止日期的学生,80.6% 在截止前完成。而在自己预计的时间内完成的,只有 38.7%。什么时候做完,几乎跟着截止日期走,相关系数 r = 0.82,这个数越接近 1 说明跟得越紧。和自己的预计只有很弱的关系。
原始出处
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366–381. doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366
一份纳入 24 项随机试验的 Cochrane 综述。把食物放得更远,吃掉的量下降,标准化均数差 −0.60(95% CI −0.84 到 −0.36,这是可信范围;12 项研究、1098 人,低确定性证据),属于中等效应。把可选项减少,选择该食物的下降更明显,标准化均数差 −1.13(95% CI −1.90 到 −0.37,3 项研究、154 人,低确定性证据)。回归分析显示:放得越远、可选项越单一,效果越强。
原始出处
Hollands GJ, Carter P, Anwer S, et al. (2019). Altering the availability or proximity of food, alcohol, and tobacco products to change their selection and consumption. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 9, CD012573. doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD012573.pub3
备注
定 B 级的理由:这份综述收进来的 24 项研究全部是食物,酒和烟一项都没有;14 项在实验室做,全部来自高收入国家。所以「挪远就少碰」搬到手机和游戏上属于顺推,没有直接试验。把手机放到视线之外这一件事有人直接测过,见第 3 节第 1 条(关掉非必要通知,工作时把手机放到视线之外)。
Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35, 124–140. doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(85)90049-4;Roth, S., Robbert, T., & Straus, L. (2015). On the sunk-cost effect in economic decision-making: A meta-analytic review. Business Research, 8(1), 99–138. doi.org/10.1007/s40685-014-0014-8
Steel P (2007). The nature of procrastination: a meta-analytic and theoretical review of quintessential self-regulatory failure. Psychological Bulletin, 133(1), 65–94. doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.133.1.65
Halpern SD, French B, Small DS, et al. (2015). Randomized trial of four financial-incentive programs for smoking cessation. New England Journal of Medicine, 372(22), 2108–2117. doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1414293
Lally P, van Jaarsveld CHM, Potts HWW, Wardle J (2010). How are habits formed: Modelling habit formation in the real world. European Journal of Social Psychology, 40(6), 998–1009. doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.674
150 人随机分成三组:有治疗师指导的自助、无指导的自助、等待名单对照。十周后,纯拖延量表上的组间效应量,有指导组 d = 0.70(95% CI 0.29–1.10,这是可信范围),无指导组 d = 0.50(0.10–0.90);非理性拖延量表上分别是 0.81(0.40–1.22)和 0.69(0.29–1.09)。达到临床意义改善的比例:有指导组 31.3% 到 40.0%,无指导组 24.0% 到 36.0%。两组在任何一项结果上都没有显著差别。
原始出处
Rozental A, Forsell E, Svensson A, Andersson G, Carlbring P (2015). Internet-based cognitive-behavior therapy for procrastination: A randomized controlled trial. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 83(4), 808–824. doi.org/10.1037/ccp0000023
多数用惯了 Word 的人,还是在点工具栏图标。分组对比的实验里,快捷键比菜单和图标都快。学这一次是一次性花费,之后每天每次操作都在回本。做同一类工作越久,赚回来越多。
看收益、证据和原始出处
花掉什么
不花钱。要一次性投入几小时到几十小时去学。难在刚上手那阵子比用鼠标还慢。
换回什么
研究看了 251 名有经验的 Word 用户,多数人很少用更快的快捷键,还是以点图标工具栏为主。分组对比的实验确认,菜单、图标、快捷键这三种方式里,快捷键最快。省回的时间随每天操作次数一点点累积。长期做同一类工作的人,收益最大。
原始出处
Lane, D. M., Napier, H. A., Peres, S. C., & Sándor, A. (2005). Hidden costs of graphical user interfaces: Failure to make the transition from menus and icon toolbars to keyboard shortcuts. International Journal of Human-Computer Interaction. doi.org/10.1207/s15327590ijhc1802_1